If the Dodgers want to make it three straight World Series titles, they must now win four straight games against the Brewers in the NL Championship Series. 

Improbable? Yes. Impossible? No. 

Just ask someone who was an integral figure in one of MLB’s most historic comebacks.

MLB on FOX analyst David “Big Papi” Ortiz, who helped the Boston Red Sox overcome a three-game ALCS deficit in 2004 against the New York Yankees, said it’s time for the Dodgers to play like there is nothing to lose.

“It’s funny how that works, because you feel more pressure at the beginning of the series than when you are 0-and-3 because once you get there, when you hit bottom like that, it feels like you have got nothing to lose,” Ortiz said after the Brewers’ 6-2 win over the Dodgers on Wednesday night in Game 3. 

History is certainly not on the Dodgers’ side. In all best-of-seven postseason series, teams with a 3-0 lead have gone on to win the series 41 of 42 times, with 32 of those series being sweeps. Only two teams have forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0 – and only that 2004 Red Sox squad have come all the way back to win.

So what would Ortiz tell the Dodgers about taking that first step?

“There’s no more room to go back. All you gotta do is just move forward. You hit bottom already. Let’s just let things happen. Let’s not try to get three hits in one at-bat. Let’s not try to get three outs in one pitch. Let’s go to the flow.” 

The 2004 Red Sox made history by overcoming a three-game deficit. (Photo by Damian Strohmeyer /Sports Illustrated via Getty Images)

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On the losing side of that 2004 clash were fellow MLB on FOX analysts Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, who added their perspectives on how the Dodgers should approach Game 4. 

“The pressure is almost off them right now. Now, they just go out and win a game,” Rodriguez said. “And how many times have the Dodgers, over the last five years, won four in a row?… But you got to start with one pitch. You got [Tyler Glasnow] now on the mound tomorrow. If you win tomorrow, you got [Tarik Skubal] in Game 5 and then you never know. 

“But it starts with the first pitch of the game, and you’re playing for your life, and you do not want the Brewers to celebrate on your field.” 

Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter after losing Game 7 in the 2004 ALCS. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

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Added Jeter: “Coming into this series, no one thought Milwaukee was going to win three games in a row. But no one expected [the Yankees] to win the first three games in a row against the [Red Sox]. We thought it was going to be evenly matched. If going into that series they said ‘we’re going to go to seven games’, everyone would have believed it.

“It’s the same thing here. If you’re the Los Angeles Dodgers, you cannot take the field thinking that you’re down three games. All you have to do is win one game.”

The Dodgers actually have someone in their dugout who also played in that 2004 series. Manager Dave Roberts was Ortiz’s teammate on that 2004 Red Sox team and alluded to that comeback when asked about the Dodgers’ chances, starting with Game 4 on Thursday. 

“It’s certainly possible [to overcome a 0-3 deficit]. I’ve lived it. I think the thing is that our guys have been battle tested, as was that team I was a part of,” Roberts said after the Game 3 loss. “They know what’s at stake and, you know, we’ve won four in a row, a number of times this year …. But again, we got to win tomorrow. So that’s, that’s our only focus.”

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DODGER STADIUM (Los Angeles) — Brewers first baseman Jake Bauers stood off to the side of a frenzied Brewers clubhouse that had, as right-hander Trevor Megill said, “more reporters than players in here.” 

The small-market Brewers are not used to all this attention on them. Neither is Bauers.

With his back against a wall, wearing a cream-colored zip-up and a hunter green hat with the words “Needed This” across the front, Bauers blended into the background of the busy locker room. He wasn’t hiding from the cameras, but he also didn’t garner the kind of flashy attention that, for example, young star Jackson Chourio and team captain Christian Yelich were both dealing with at their lockers. Bauers, humble and selfless by nature, didn’t mind blending in.

Meanwhile, the entire room was talking about Bauers’ standout performance throughout the NLCS, culminating with his clutch go-ahead two-run home run off Dodgers southpaw Blake Snell in the seventh inning of the Brewers’ 6-2 win in Game 3 on Thursday night. 

From nearly walking away from baseball to becoming one of the most important players on a championship-caliber Brewers team that’s one win away from a trip to the World Series, Bauers has emerged as a leader, an inspiration and the heartbeat of Milwaukee’s clubhouse. 

“He’s always someone you can lean on and talk to,” Brewers second baseman Brice Turang told me after their win. “You look up to guys who play the game well, and play the game hard, and he always does. And even off the field, the way he treats other people is really cool. We appreciate him very much, and we let him know. He’s definitely a big part of why we’re winning games.”

Two days ago, it was difficult to imagine Bauers could top his epic 12-pitch at-bat against Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 2 of the NLCS. The grueling at-bat lasted seven minutes and four seconds as Bauers hung in there and battled, fouling pitch after pitch until he finally drew a walk, loaded the bases, and set up a huge inning for the Brewers. The marathon at-bat drained Yamamoto’s pitch count and helped Milwaukee knock the Dodgers ace out of the game after just 2 ⅔ innings.

“I didn’t think he could have a better at-bat than the one he had against Yamamoto,” Brewers outfielder Sal Frelick said. “And he did, somehow.”

In the seventh inning of Game 3, with the Brewers trailing the Dodgers 2-1, Bauers was back in the thick of it. He battled against Snell, fouled off his entire arsenal, and tried to exhaust him into throwing a mistake. 

“There was for sure a moment where I thought to myself like, ‘Oh, you’re in it again,'” Bauers said. “As far as the approach for the at-bat, I was looking for a fastball, and I didn’t want to miss it. I said, I’ll adjust to anything else, but get a heater, don’t miss it.”

On the 11th pitch of the at-bat, Bauers got his fastball. Snell threw it straight down the middle of the plate, over the heart of the strike zone, and Bauers got every inch of it. He launched it to right field, watched it fly, dropped his bat, and looked at his teammates in the dugout, who were losing their minds as they spilled onto the field in celebration. Bauers’ two-run home run completed Milwaukee’s comeback and gave the team a 3-2 lead. 

The 11 pitches he saw also helped Brewers center fielder Garrett Mitchell, who was in the on-deck circle, get an excellent read on all of Snell’s pitches. Mitchell, on the second pitch of his at-bat against Snell, slugged a solo shot to right field, demoralizing the Dodgers with back-to-back home runs in front of a hostile road environment, no less. 

“We play for each other,” Bauers said. “It’s as simple as that. Any time there’s a mistake, an error, a walk, pitchers give up runs, hitters strike out in a big spot, the only thing anybody’s thinking about is, how can I help pick that guy up and do my part to win this game? When you have 26 guys that are bought into that and believe that and show up every day, completely selfless, playing for each other, it’s a special thing to be a part of.”

Added Mitchell: “What more can you say about JB, man? He did it the day before in Game 2, and he did it again tonight. I think that just goes to show the type of player he is. It’s a selfless at-bat. He’s just trying to put the ball in play. He’s trying to move the guy over and put an incredible swing on that. For me, being able to watch that on deck was awesome. I got to go up there and put together another quality at-bat, like him.”

ALL YEAR, WHEN the Brewers needed someone to step up, Bauers became one of the first players they looked toward. But it wasn’t always this way. 

At the end of the 2024 season, after Bauers’ recorded his fifth-consecutive season as a below-league average hitter at the plate, he seriously considered retiring from baseball. Following several years of moving between organizations — Milwaukee is the fifth MLB team that Bauers has played for — and struggling to find consistency or results at the plate, the game had taken a toll on him. He started thinking about life after baseball, including spending more time at home with his family.  

Ultimately, his decision to continue playing led him back to Milwaukee, where he received another opportunity to prove himself. Finally, Bauers found some magic at the plate. Last year, he posted a 111 OPS+ in 85 games and raised his on-base percentage from .301 in 2024 to .353 in 2025. This season, he completely took off. Bauers’ career year featured a 140 OPS+ to go along with a .389 on-base percentage, 26 home runs, 86 RBI, 22 doubles, 93 runs scored and 94 walks. Those are all career highs for the 30-year-old journeyman. His turnaround is remarkable.

“I think what changed for me this year was I stopped caring about results,” Bauers said. “I started caring about competing. I started caring about being in the moment and getting out of my own way. I came into this year feeling like there was really only one person holding me back, and that was myself. So I think I just gave myself the space to believe that I could play in this league.”

Jake Bauers nearly retired two years ago. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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Not only is Bauers “playing in this league,” but he’s shaping up to win the NLCS MVP. 

“I’ve grown so close with him personally and learned about his journey, and it’s just inspiring,” Frelick said. “You look at a guy who was close to retiring, or thinking about it. Now he’s leading us against a really good baseball team. It’s just a testament to his mindset, how he goes about his business. He’s a pro. 

“He understands the game more as a veteran. He helps the younger guys learn through it. You can really relate with a guy like that who’s struggled in his career, and when guys struggle here, they want to turn to a guy like that. It might be easier to turn to someone like him, versus Yeli, who’s a three-time MVP.”

Coming up clutch at Dodger Stadium is a full-circle moment for Bauers. He grew up in Southern California. As a kid, he went to his first major-league game at Dodger Stadium. He played his high school state championship game at Dodger Stadium – and his team lost. 

“Obviously, we got swept last year out at Dodger Stadium,” Bauers said earlier this week. “So not a whole lot of positive memories out at Dodger Stadium, but hoping to make some for sure.”

Jake Bauers, staying focused. (Photo by Nicole Vasquez/MLB Photos via Getty Images)

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Bauers knows from experience what it’s like to fail and keep going anyway. His go-ahead two-run home run that has brought the Brewers one win away from eliminating the back-to-back defending champions can replace the old Dodger Stadium memories that have haunted him throughout his baseball journey. 

This is more than Bauers’ talent and the belief he kept that he would find it again. Without his patience, composure, confidence, production and leadership, it’s fair to question whether the Brewers would be here today: 27 outs from their first World Series appearance in 44 years. 

Sometimes, the most important players on championship teams are the ones who have had to fight the hardest to stay. 

“He’s the man,” Brewers rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt told me. “He’s gonna do all that, he’s gonna win the game for us, and it’s just another Wednesday for him. He’s a dog.”

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Can No. 4 Ohio State avenge its Big Ten championship game loss to No. 5 Indiana on “Big Noon Kickoff”? Will No. 6 Alabama bounce back against No. 14 Tennessee after a loss to No. 1 Georgia?

Elsewhere, a College Football Playoff spot could be on the line when No. 2 Notre Dame visits No. 8 BYU. Austin Simmons leads No. 13 Missouri against his former team, No. 9 Ole Miss. 

With six matchups between Associated Press Top 25 opponents, Week 7 of the college football season might feature the most exciting slate of the season. We’re breaking down our straight-up picks and the matchups to watch closely throughout the weekend.   

	RJ Young	Laken Litman	Ben Portnoy
Last Week	6-4	6-4	4-6
Overall	42-16	38-20	36-22

  No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 4 Ohio State

Ohio State wide receiver Jeremiah Smith is two touchdowns away from breaking the all-time Big Ten receiving touchdowns record. (Photo by Ben Jackson/Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, noon ET (FOX)
Where: Memorial Stadium, Bloomington, Indiana
Line: Ohio State -3.5

RJ Young: Ohio State
The best player in the sport is Jeremiah Smith, and Ohio State coach Ryan Day should not be shy about reminding Indiana about that.

Laken Litman: Ohio State
This is my answer for nearly every Ohio State game: The Buckeyes have Jeremiah Smith and Indiana doesn’t.

Ben Portnoy: Indiana
OK, fine, this is probably a bit of a homer pick. I took the Hoosiers to win the Big Ten at the start of the season and I can’t stray from that, right? Right. Give me Curt Cignetti’s squad in the biggest home game in the history of Indiana football.

  No. 22 LSU vs. No. 16 Mississippi State

LSU head coach Lane Kiffin is 1-2 against Associated Press Top 25 teams during the 2026 season. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, noon ET (ESPN)
Where: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Line: LSU -14.5

Young: LSU
Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor won’t be 100% healthy even if he plays on Saturday. Advantage, LSU.

Litman: LSU
The Tigers will rebound at home after an upset loss to Kentucky in overtime last week. Plus, Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor’s status is still uncertain.

Portnoy: LSU
Kamario Taylor is still on the mend and while the spread feels pretty big for a matchup of two top-25 teams, I have a hard time seeing the Bulldogs pull this one out. I’ll take LSU quarterback Sam Leavitt to get right against what’s been just a mediocre Mississippi State defense.

  No. 14 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Alabama

Keelon Russell had his first loss as Alabama’s starting quarterback in their rivalry game against Georgia last week. (Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, Tennessee
Line: Alabama -7.5

Young: Alabama
The Crimson Tide have the better quarterback and wide receiver room. Tennessee must run the ball well to win.

Litman: Alabama
Even after last week’s loss to Georgia, Alabama looks like a team that could win it all. The Crimson Tide are not going to lose two in a row, especially not against a Tennessee team led by backup quarterback George MacIntyre.

Portnoy: Alabama
Nothing complicated about this one. Tennessee has real problems at quarterback and absolutely nothing the Vols put on tape last week against Arkansas makes me think they’re up for this challenge. Bama rolls big.

  No. 10 Texas Tech vs. Arizona State

Texas Tech quarterback Will Hammond has thrown for 1,102 yards, five touchdowns and five interceptions.  (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: Galaxy Stadium, Lubbock, Texas
Line: Texas Tech -14.5

Young: Texas Tech
Texas Tech has flirted with disaster enough to make me feel nervous, but I think the Red Raiders have an answer for ASU running back Cardae Mack.

Litman: Texas Tech
In a heated Big 12 race, Texas Tech stays unbeaten with a decisive win over an inconsistent ASU team.

Portnoy: Texas Tech
Arizona State and quarterback Cutter Boley have had their moments and I still think Texas Tech is hardly a shoo-in for the Big 12 title, but the Red Raiders are just the more talented team in this one. 

  No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 13 Missouri

Austin Simmons will face his former team, Ole Miss, in Oxford this Saturday. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, Mississippi
Line: Ole Miss -5.5

Young: Missouri
Running back Jamal Roberts has rushed for at least 200 yards in back-to-back games and quarterback Austin Simmons is good enough to exploit Ole Miss’ leaky secondary.

Litman: Missouri
The Tigers surprise Ole Miss on the road and further cement themselves as a legit SEC contender.

Portnoy: Ole Miss
I know Ole Miss got run by Florida a few weeks back, but I still think quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is one of the five best players in the sport this year. Austin Simmons has been awesome for Missouri and I think he’ll find success against a bad Rebels defense, but Chambliss will make one more play down the stretch to win a shootout.

  No. 8 BYU vs. No. 2 Notre Dame

Notre Dame quarterback C.J. Carr has completed 70.8% of his passing attempts for 1,378 yards and 16 touchdowns. (Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
Where: LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, Utah
Line: Notre Dame -10.5

Young: Notre Dame
BYU will play its biggest game of the season without star tailback and 2025 Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year LJ Martin. I’ll take Notre Dame.

Litman: Notre Dame
In both of these teams’ first true test, Fighting Irish quarterback CJ Carr outduels the Cougars’ Bear Bachmeier and removes any doubt that Notre Dame is a real threat to compete for the CFP title.

Portnoy: Notre Dame
Simply put, I don’t think BYU has enough firepower without running back LJ Martin to get over the hump here. Notre Dame has been a touch shaky in spurts this fall, but I expect the Irish to handle the Cougars relatively comfortably in this one.

  Oklahoma vs. No. 15 Kentucky

Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer helped the Sooners defeat Texas in the Red River Rivalry last week. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Where: Memorial Stadium, Norman, Oklahoma
Line: Oklahoma -6.5

Young: Kentucky
The Sooners can’t consistently move the ball offensively, and Kentucky has shown it can win close games late.

Litman: Kentucky
This is a letdown game for OU after a massive win over Texas last week, while coach Will Stein and Kentucky earn a third SEC road win.

Portnoy: Kentucky
Oklahoma might have won the “Red River Rivalry”, but that had far more to do with the horrific play of Texas quarterback Arch Manning down the stretch than anything the Sooners did. Kentucky has won its last two by the skin of its teeth, but the Wildcat offense is simply a far more effective operation right now.

  No. 20 Houston vs. No. 18 Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker threw for 304 yards and two touchdowns against UCF last Saturday. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: TDECU Stadium, Houston, Texas
Line: Houston -4.5

Young: Oklahoma State
The Cowboys are just too explosive, and the Cougars can’t win a shootout.

Litman: Oklahoma State
In a game with huge Big 12 standing implications, Oklahoma State quarterback Drew Mestemaker gets the better of Houston’s Conner Weigman and the Cowboys win their fifth consecutive game.

Portnoy: Oklahoma State
Drew Mestemaker has come on strong following whatever it is Oklahoma State did when it lost to Tulsa earlier this year. Houston should keep this close down to the wire, but I’ll take the Cowboys offense to be the difference.

  No. 12 UCLA vs. Wisconsin

UCLA running back Wayne Knight leads the Big Ten with nine rushing touchdowns. (Photo by Greg Fiore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
Where: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Line: UCLA -2.5

Young: Wisconsin
The Badgers have won four game in a row and will play a UCLA team that needed seven turnovers to win by two points against an Oregon team that started its backup quarterback last weekend.

Litman: UCLA
Bruins quarterback Nico Iamaleava is reportedly expected to miss the rest of the season with a knee injury, but backup Ty Dieffenbach does enough to keep the offense rolling. UCLA remains undefeated.

Portnoy: UCLA
I know Nico Iamaleava is out for the season, but I’m not altogether sure how much that will matter for a UCLA offense that has lived and died by running back Wayne Knight. Wisconsin is riding a high and I like the pieces Luke Fickell has compiled, but I’m giving coach Bob Chesney’s bunch the benefit of the doubt.

  Oregon vs. Nebraska

Oregon quarterback Dylan Raiola struggled against UCLA, completing six of his 19 passing attempts for 43 yards, while committing three turnovers. (Photo by Al Sermeno/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)

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When: Saturday, 11:00 p.m. ET (FOX)
Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon
Line: Oregon -7

Young: Nebraska
With quarterback Dante Moore ruled out, Nebraska has the edge.

Litman: Nebraska
Nebraska had Indiana on the rails last week before the defending champs pulled away in the fourth quarter. The Huskers will rebound from the loss against a reeling Oregon team that’s trying to keep its season alive.

Portnoy: Nebraska
Dylan Raiola was a disaster last week against UCLA and considering what Nebraska showed against Indiana, I like the Huskers defense to be disruptive in this one. Matt Rhule finally gets a marquee win.

College Football Related Stories

Joel Klatt on Ohio State vs Indiana, USC, Arch Manning criticism | FULL INTERVIEW | The Herd

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By now, you’ve heard some variation of the story.

Indiana athletics director Scott Dolson has told it countless times. It’s been printed in newspaper copy for months. It’s been chronicled in books about the remarkable rise of Hoosiers football.

Nobody knew exactly who Indiana hired in Curt Cignetti in December 2024, but there was an idea, a feeling, an inkling about what he might represent and what the Indiana brass wanted.

Dolson and his staff created a manifesto of sorts in the wake of the Tom Allen era. They circled traditional basketball powers like Kansas and North Carolina and how they held their own in football’s modern era.

Indiana wanted that. It desired a sitting head coach to match those ambitions.

That led to Cignetti.

Curt Cignetti is 33-2 midway through his third season at Indiana. (Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images)

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“There’s no perfect answer,” Dolson told me. “But, for us, where we were with the program, we felt like we needed someone who really just had a lot of experience as a head coach at managing the program, really had a blueprint.”

Walt Disney might scoff at the underdog tale that has unfolded in Bloomington of late as almost too unbelievable, too cliché. But believe it. The national championship signage emblazoned on Memorial Stadium’s South End Zone is a reminder of what has transpired.

                    

FBS head coaches

 2024 2025 2026*

• Curt Cignetti (Indiana): 33 wins (2024: 11, 2025: 16, 2026: 6)
• Ryan Day (Ohio State): 31 wins (2024: 14, 2025: 12, 2026: 5)
• Marcus Freeman (Notre Dame): 30 wins (2024: 14, 2025: 10, 2026: 6)
• Kirby Smart (Georgia): 29 wins (2024: 11, 2025: 12, 2026: 6)
• Dan Lanning (Oregon): 29 wins (2024: 13, 2025: 13, 2026: 3)

A statue of the at-times grumpy, yet candid and viciously meticulous head coach that spearheaded this transformation is almost certain to be part of this permanence sooner than later.

But as No. 5 Indiana approaches perhaps the most anticipated home game in program history on Saturday against No. 4 Ohio State, the impact of this tale and the thinking that brought Cignetti to Bloomington are having far-reaching ramifications.

The Hoosiers have their unicorn. The rest of College Football Inc. is trying to find theirs.

“There’s no magic bullet,” one industry source familiar with the coaching carousel told me. “I love the Indiana story and the Cignetti story, but that doesn’t mean that’s just going to happen every year.”

Leaning Toward Experience

Jamie Pollard has had brief moments of introspection in recent weeks.

Retirement looms for the outgoing Iowa State athletics director. He’ll make it back to Ames for a handful of football games, but split time in Arizona, running or playing golf.

During a reflective call in recent days, he thought back to pillar moments of his two-plus decades leading the department — efforts that made him among the longest-tenured administrators in the country — and the football hires that defined that period.

“What I would tell you that I’ve observed is the two coordinators [I hired] spent their first several weeks, months, putting together their staff,” Pollard recounted. “Then that staff had to kind of figure out its culture, and, in some ways, we lost a year because it took a year for them to really get focused on what kind of players? What do we need? The whole operation.

“And so when we hired Matt [Campbell] 10 years ago, I made the decision that we were going to hire a sitting head coach.”

Matt Campbell posted a 72-55 record in ten seasons as Iowa State’s head coach. (Photo by David K Purdy/Getty Images)

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Talk to any administrator, search firm executive or coaching agent, and they’ll echo similar sentiments — there is no perfect way to hire a coach. But as Cignetti has torched college football’s best, the emphasis on head coaching experience and success at lower rungs of the sport has become prioritized in circles it was once more broadly ignored.

Before replacing a legend at Alabama, Kalen DeBoer won three national titles at NAIA Sioux Falls.

Before helping Houston into the Big 12 race, Willie Fritz won big at Blinn Junior College.

Before stabilizing Kansas, Lance Leipold won six national championships at Division III Wisconsin-Whitewater.

Before reigniting Florida, Jon Sumrall won conference titles at Troy and Tulane.

“I’ve had an AD and president push back on a lower-level profile when a candidate came up,” a second industry source told me. “I’m like, ‘Well, where did Curt Cignetti come from?’ He was head coach at [IU-Pennsylvania].”

“We looked at Lance Leipold, his success and how he really was able to do what he did at Kansas, and getting that program stabilized,” Dolson said. “… History is the greatest predictor of the future, right? We looked at that and, at the time, that felt like ‘Wow, that’s really a telling thing.’”

Lance Leipold has posted a 29-38 record during his time at Kansas. (Photo by Scott Llewellyn/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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During the interview process that would land him at Iowa State, Pollard’s eventual head coach asked if he could bring his assistant coaches from Toledo with him.

The prevailing thought in college football circles had been that lower-level staffs need to be bolstered with Power Four experience. Pollard didn’t buy it.

“If you don’t, I’m not hiring you,” he deadpanned. 

Campbell laughed.

“Well, most Power Four jobs, the coaches are told, ‘You’re going to have to go get a big-name coordinator, or you’ve got to get this,’” he said at the time. “I kind of was of the understanding that I couldn’t bring them.”

While Campbell’s hiring at Iowa State is a decade past, Cignetti has been among the harbingers of administrator and search firms’ more recent hiring inclinations. 

Arkansas State athletics director Chris Pezman, a former Houston linebacker who hired Fritz from Tulane, couldn’t shake the loss the Green Wave handed Pezman’s alma mater in 2022.

Fritz — by then a more established commodity after successful runs at Blinn, Central Missouri and then-FCS Sam Houston State — downed Houston in overtime with a third-string quarterback.

“I couldn’t get over it because this kid just found out on like Thursday he was starting and came in and beat us at our place,” Pezman told me. “His ability to get kids to play above themselves [stood out], and you saw that later on.”

Tulane quarterback Kai Horton led the Green Wave to a memorable 27-24 win over Houston in 2022. (Photo by Ken Murray/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Pezman filed that sentiment away when searching for Dana Holgorsen’s replacement in 2023. 

Pollard, too, used similar priorities that brought Campbell to Ames when replacing him with ex-Washington State and South Dakota State head coach Jimmy Rogers this past offseason.

“Five years ago, you’d hire the hot coordinator, and you’d help them figure it out, because most of the time, you’d be signing guys knowing they’re going to get to Year 4 or 5 in the contract,” Pezman continued. “Now, with the way the industry’s gone, pressures that are on everybody financially, you get maybe two, three years to figure out if they’re the guy. … That’s where the premium [on head coaching experience] is, because they can come in and know what they need.”

Is it a touch too early to call the bend toward head coaching experience a full-blown trend? Perhaps. But it’s not nothing.

Last year’s coaching cycle saw a historic 17 Power Four jobs change hands. Of those, 10 went to sitting head coaches, while ex-Northwestern head coach Pat Fitzgerald also landed at Michigan State. Two were internal promotions — Morgan Scalley (Utah) and Pete Golding (Ole Miss). One — Tavita Pritchard (Stanford) — came by way of the NFL.

Only three went to coordinators — Will Stein (Kentucky), Collin Klein (Kansas State) and Tosh Lupoi (Cal). 

Even at the Group of Six level, nine head coaches — like Missouri State’s Ryan Beard (Coastal Carolina), Jim Mora Jr. (Colorado State), Jason Candle (UConn), Mike Jacobs (Toledo) and Will Hall (Tulane) — were sitting head coaches or had been head coaches over the last three years.

Jim Mora was hired at Colorado State after serving as the head coach at UConn from 2022-2025. (Photo by Timothy Hurst/MediaNews Group/The Denver Post via Getty Images)

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Now, whether any of that equates to a title-level turn is a stiffer test.

“If you learn how to win, learn how to build a program, it takes a little bit of the risk away from having a first-time guy in somebody that’s done it at multiple levels and figured out ways to do it at multiple levels,” a third industry source told me. “Years ago, people would be hesitant to hire somebody coming from the FCS, but now I do think, man, if you’ve had success at multiple levels, Curt Cignetti has opened up that door. 

“Man, like, winners win.”

The Exception, Not The Rule

Georgia head coach Kirby Smart glanced down at the sheets resting on the podium before perking up and flashing a mild grin.

“I’m still waiting on the first ‘Cignetti effect’ in the SEC,” he said through his deep drawl during his weekly press conference on Tuesday. “It’s tough, tough, tough sledding week in, week out.”

Smart isn’t wrong. Cignetti is the exception to the rule. But as the cost of competing at the highest levels of college football rises month after month, administrators and boosters alike expect a return on investment, and that expectation has ramped up first-year pressure.

The Indiana Hoosiers reveal the 2025 national championship sign prior to the game against North Texas. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)

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The Athletic reported in September that 15 programs were spending in a range that may reach $40 million or more this fall. Another 13 programs saw the top end of their prospective ranges north of $30 million.

That kind of commitment demands results — and breeds consternation when the on-field product doesn’t match.

LSU head coach Lane Kiffin has slogged to a 1-2 start in SEC play after the school committed somewhere in the neighborhood of $200 million between buying out Brian Kelly’s staff, bringing in Kiffin and flipping the Tigers’ roster.

Florida’s Jon Sumrall, two weeks after being anointed the second-coming of Steve Spurrier, hit the skids in losses to Missouri and South Carolina that have spiked anxiety levels in Gainesville.

Even Campbell, who was hired at Penn State after a topsy-turvy search that has fans sideways with administration in Happy Valley, is struggling to get the Nittany Lions off the ground after blowing a 17-0 lead to Wisconsin and falling to a susceptible USC squad the last two weeks. 

“There’s going to be a paradigm shift and a mindset change of educating people that, like the NFL, you know you’re going to lose games, but it’s all about, ‘Can we win nine or 10, get to the playoffs and make a run?’” said a fourth industry source. “… That should be the mentality, but everybody still has the mentality of ‘Well, we’re paying $30-40 million for a roster, we should win every game.’ It’s just not going to happen.”

Cignetti is at least partially to blame for the insatiable craving for instant success. After all, Indiana won a national championship. In football.

But for each slow start, there are those doing more with less that are expected to be hot commodities come carousel season, given their Cignetti-esque résumés and an ability to overachieve with less than ideal resources.

UCLA’s Bob Chesney has been a revelation in Westwood, guiding the previously downtrodden Bruins to a 5-0 start with a road win over Oregon last week despite athletics director Martin Jarmond being fired and Chesney’s predecessor, DeShaun Foster, not lasting two seasons.

Fritz, armed with one of the lowest roster budgets in the Power Four, has Houston humming heading into a crucial matchup with No. 18 Oklahoma State on Saturday.

Wake Forest’s Jake Dickert is in the midst of a 5-1 start despite a budget reportedly in the range of $16-20 million, per The Athletic. Sources suggest the former Washington State head coach will be among the most sought-after names on the carousel this fall.

Whether he’ll listen is another story.

Wake Forest coach Jake Dickert led the Demon Deacons to a win over Mississippi State in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl. (Photo by David Jensen/Getty Images)

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“None of these jobs are easy. None of them. Even Alabama, Texas. Those aren’t easy jobs either,” Wake Forest athletics director John Currie told me. “They all have dynamics, and so you can have experienced something hard as an assistant, but if you’ve experienced it as a head coach and you still have the energy to do it again, I think that’s really important.

“… Personally, I think there’s only so many of those packets of energy a person can deploy over their career. That’s one of the reasons that you see some head coaches transition from one place to another, and they don’t do as well. It’s just really hard to understand the level of energy that is required for that and that is a finite thing in most leagues.”

Cignetti, for his efforts, shows no signs of slowing down.

The 65-year-old one-time Nick Saban assistant is among the highest-paid coaches in the sport. That’s been matched with a budget that’s believed to be in the upper quartile of the Big Ten, per The Athletic.

Indiana has also rewarded Cignetti’s assistants handsomely. Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines — a popular assistant name for the coming cycle — is among the highest-paid assistants in the country. Offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, too, is being paid more than $2.4 million annually.

Such is the cost of success. And maintaining it.

Indiana defensive coordinator Bryant Haines followed Curt Cignetti from James Madison to Indiana in 2024. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Dolson almost perked up watching Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz and the upstart Hawkeyes upset Michigan in Ann Arbor three weeks ago. The blueprint he saw in Ferentz’s squad was familiar, almost predictable. 

The former Bob Knight manager, who saw the rough and rugged nature of the Hoosiers’ basketball program up close during its heyday, wants the same characterization for his football program.

“Iowa’s teams, to me … look the same,” Dolson said. “Like, you can go back 50 years, the players in the uniforms change, but they look the same. And they’ve been able to recruit to that. They’ve developed their players. They’ve shown really better than anyone how you can have consistent results by really having that continuity and that blueprint. 

“That’s what we’re trying to do is emulate other programs that have been able to sustain continued success.”

Saturday is a chance for further proof of concept, that the money Indiana has sunk into its program is well-spent. But even if the Hoosiers can’t outlast Ryan Day’s Buckeyes, Cignetti and IU are already college football’s modern iconoclast.

“People still have the mindset that if one guy can do it, why can’t everybody else?” said the fourth industry source. “And it’s really the exception, not the rule.”

Everybody wants their own Curt Cignetti. Good luck finding it.

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DODGER STADIUM (LOS ANGELES) – Twenty-four minutes after the Milwaukee Brewers’ latest onslaught pushed the defending back-to-back champions to the brink, Kiké Hernández remained in full uniform on Wednesday night. A fixture of this golden era of Los Angeles Dodgers baseball, Hernández sat in front of his locker with his face in his hands, staring silently ahead, still grappling with his superteam’s unforeseen reality. 

In an adjacent corner of the home clubhouse sat ace deadline addition Tarik Skubal, an example of the excess talent expected to keep this dynasty alive. The Dodgers are experienced and expensive. They are star-studded and steadfast, featuring an assortment of All-Stars and a fusion of fresh faces and long-time franchise luminaries. 

But they are neither invincible nor inevitable, certainly not in the way they seemed to be just a few days ago. 

“We didn’t expect to be in this position,” Hernández said after Wednesday night’s 6-2 loss put the Dodgers in a 3-0 hole in the National League Championship Series. “This one sucks.” 

A year after the Dodgers swept the Brewers in the NLCS, Milwaukee is one win away from returning the favor. The Brewers have not simply small-balled their way to three straight wins to begin the series; they have taken it to the Dodgers in every facet. 

Milwaukee is hitting .281 with five home runs and 15 runs scored over three games. Los Angeles, meanwhile, is batting .165 with no home runs and just seven runs. 

Rather than get into the minutiae of how the Brewers’ pitching staff — in particular an overpowering bullpen that is 3-0 with a 1.32 ERA in the NLCS — is neutralizing the Dodgers’ sluggers, third baseman Max Muncy decided not to overcomplicate the reasoning. 

“It’s a pretty simple answer,” Muncy said in a postgame press conference. “We’re playing like s—. They’re playing great. It’s as simple as that.”

The Brewers beat Skubal, the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner, in Game 1. They then blitzed Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the reigning World Series MVP, in Game 2. 

And in Game 3, as the series shifted to Los Angeles, where the Dodgers were 51-30 this season, the Brewers launched three home runs against two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, who had not allowed a single homer all season, to put the defending champions’ dreams of a three-peat on life support. 

“At the beginning of the year, we set out to do something historic,” Muncy said. “It looks like we’re going to have to make a little more history along the way if we want to accomplish that.” 

No team has won three straight World Series championships since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees. No National League team has ever accomplished the feat. 

If the Dodgers are going to be the first, they need to dig out of a hole only one MLB team has ever survived in a best-of-seven series. 

That team, the 2004 Boston Red Sox, stormed back against the Yankees in the ALCS en route to winning the World Series. They were sparked by Dave Roberts’ iconic steal in Game 4. The Dodgers’ manager hasn’t been tempted to pull out that game tape for his team. 

“I don’t know if some of those guys even know I played,” Roberts quipped before Game 3. “No, absolutely not. When times get tough, I just kind of go the other way and get more lax and have fun with the guys.”

That will be more of a challenge after Wednesday night’s demoralizing defeat.

In the sixth inning of Game 3, after five scoreless innings from Brewers starter Robert Gasser, the Dodgers finally made a dent in Milwaukee’s pristine bullpen. Three walks loaded the bases against reliever Abner Uribe to bring up Dodgers catcher Will Smith, who broke out of a 1-for-25 October funk with a go-ahead double. 

The euphoria for the 50,708 fans in attendance at Dodger Stadium was short-lived.

The Dodgers, who are 3-for-32 with runners in scoring position, failed to tack on any insurance runs after Smith’s extra-base hit. 

“To be able to win championships, you’ve got to win moments,” said Dodgers infielder Miguel Rojas. “And we haven’t been able to do that in this series.”

Two batters prior to Smith’s hit, Roberts pinch-hit Andy Pages — who had the team’s only two hits with runners in scoring position this October entering Game 3 — for Muncy, who struck out. 

The move signified the urgency Roberts felt with his offense struggling to deliver and Uribe on the ropes. 

After Smith’s double, Roberts could have left Rojas in to face Uribe with two runners in scoring position and one out. Instead, he turned to lefty Josue De Paula for another platoon advantage. Brewers manager Pat Murphy countered with southpaw DL Hall. Roberts then made another switch, bringing Hernández off the bench. Again, the result was a strikeout. Tommy Edman then went down looking to end the threat. 

The Dodgers’ nearly emptied the bench, going all in for that inning. 

“That was the game right there,” said Hernández, who has so often been the team’s hero during their October runs. “I have had two of the biggest at-bats in the series for our team, and I haven’t been able to come through.”

Their lead lasted minutes. 

“It’s really hard to put into words,” Rojas said of the emotional swing. 

Snell had retired 14 straight batters when he returned for the seventh inning. He walked leadoff hitter Andrew Vaughn, surrendered a go-ahead, two-run blast to Jake Bauers on the 11th pitch of another marathon at-bat from the Brewers slugger. Snell then hung his 101st pitch of the night in the zone to the next batter, Garrett Mitchell, who sent the pitch 428 feet to right field to make it back-to-back home runs.

Snell flipped his hands in the air after the Mitchell bomb, either in frustration or disbelief. It’s a reaction all too common for every opponent standing in Milwaukee’s way. 

Wednesday’s win marked the Brewers’ fifth comeback victory this postseason, tying the 1996 Yankees and 1980 Philadelphia Phillies for the most within a club’s first seven games in playoff history. 

It also put the Dodgers in unfamiliar territory. 

They triumphed in two elimination games in the 2024 NL Division Series against the San Diego Padres en route to winning the World Series. They did so again in last year’s Fall Classic against the Toronto Blue Jays. 

But they’ve never faced a challenge like this.

It’s the first time since the 2023 NLDS that the Dodgers have lost each of the first three games of a series. Unlike that best-of-five series against the Arizona Diamondbacks, this deficit has not yet ended their season. 

With the Red Sox trailing, Dave Roberts stole second base in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS with Boston also down 3-0 in the series; the Red Sox went on to win the game and the series. (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

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Other than Roberts’ Red Sox squad, the other 41 teams that have fallen behind 3-0 in a best-of-seven series have ultimately relented. Of those teams, 32 were swept.

The Dodgers will try to avoid being the 33rd. 

“When you have a chance to play another baseball game, you have a chance to save your season,” Rojas told me. “I know it’s really hard to bounce back from this one, but we have a bunch of guys here in this clubhouse that are not going to go down quiet.”

A half-hour after Wednesday’s game ended, Rojas walked across the Dodgers’ clubhouse and gave Hernández a hug. 

In less than 24 hours, their ride together could be over. 

“We’ve never been in this big of a hole, but we’ve had our backs against the wall plenty of times before, and we’ve come out of it,” Hernández said. “We’re just trying to do it one more time.”

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The Milwaukee Brewers visit the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 at 8 p.m. ET from UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium for Game 4 of the NLCS. Milwaukee leads the series 3-0 after a 6-2 win in Game 3.

Milwaukee has not named a Game 4 starter. David Hamilton leads the Brewers with a .429 batting average, Jackson Chourio leads with 7 RBI and William Contreras leads with 3 home runs. Jacob Misiorowski has 11 strikeouts this postseason.

Tyler Glasnow starts for the Dodgers and has a 1.93 ERA over 4.2 innings this postseason. Miguel Rojas leads Los Angeles with a .333 batting average, Freddie Freeman leads with 3 RBI and Max Muncy leads with 3 home runs. Blake Snell has 14 strikeouts.

Below, we’ll give you all the details you need to know about how to watch this game.

How to Watch Dodgers vs. Brewers NLCS Game 4

• When: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 8:00 p.m. ET
• Where: UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• TV: FS1
• Stream: Watch 3 days free on FOX One

Players To Watch

Muncy has a .619 slugging percentage this postseason, built on 3 home runs and 13 total bases in 21 at-bats. All 3 home runs came in the Division Series against Atlanta, on Oct. 3, Oct. 4 and Oct. 7.

He has no walks and 6 strikeouts in the postseason, and he is 1 for 9 with 4 strikeouts in the NLCS against Milwaukee, with that hit coming in Game 1. During the regular season he hit 29 home runs in 149 games.

Through the Division Series and three games of the NLCS, the Dodgers’ right fielder has reached base at a .407 clip with 7 hits, 4 walks and 2 stolen bases in 7 games. His .304 average includes a 2-for-4 night with a home run and 2 RBI against Atlanta on Oct. 3.

Over 154 regular-season games he hit .233 with 17 home runs and 70 RBI. Tucker is 2 for 8 with 3 walks in the NLCS, including a double in Game 2.

A 3-for-4 game with a home run and 3 RBI in Game 2 against the Dodgers on Oct. 12 is the high point of Contreras’ postseason so far. He also went 3 for 4 with a home run at San Diego on Oct. 6, then 2 for 5 the next day.

Contreras is batting .370 with a .452 on-base percentage and 3 home runs this postseason, and he has 5 strikeouts in 27 at-bats. He went 1 for 4 with 2 strikeouts in Game 3 at Los Angeles on Oct. 14.

Seven postseason RBI have come from Chourio, who has a hit in five of seven games and is batting .200 with a .400 slugging percentage. His 2-for-4 night in Game 1 of the NLCS was his only multi-hit game of the postseason.

The left fielder hit .291 with 25 home runs and 75 RBI during the regular season, with 152 hits in 127 games. He has 2 postseason home runs, in the Division Series opener on Oct. 3 and in Game 3 of the NLCS on Oct. 14.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 4 Odds

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The Packers were written off early in the season. But after back-to-back wins, the latest coming over the Bears, are they officially back? Are the Jaguars just winning ugly games or are they a true Super Bowl contender?

In Philly, is Jalen Hurts the problem? Can we say the same about Bo Nix in Denver?

As usual, NFL fans brought their hot takes to our @NFLonFOX Instagram. I picked a handful of them to break down and render a verdict on whether you’re spot on or missing the mark. 

Let’s dive into this week’s takes: 

The Packers Are Back!
– @bdubs.17

Fact or Fiction: Fact

The Packers aren’t in the Super Bowl conversation yet, but they’re definitely back in NFC contention. 

In the past two weeks, the Packers have found themselves. They won close, holding on for a 17-14 victory over the Buccaneers in Week 4, and then overwhelmed their hated division-rival Bears en route to a three-score win in Week 5.

Green Bay arguably has the NFL’s most lethal passing attack right now. Against the Bears, Jordan Love completed six deep passes (20-plus air yards) for a career-high 258 yards, the second-most deep passing yards by a quarterback in a game over the past decade, according to Next Gen Stats. Wide receivers Christian Watson and Matthew Golden now lead all teammate duos with 871 combined receiving yards. They’re the only tandem to each have 375-plus receiving yards. 

Jordan Love had a career-high 258 yards on deep passes in a 31-7 beatdown of the Bears in Week 5. (Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

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Love’s pass protection remains an issue, but it’s gotten better. He’s been sacked only three times combined over the past three weeks and has faced a pressure rate under 36% in three of the last four weeks, per NGS. 

And how about that Packers defense? Not having to face injured Bears QB Caleb Williams helped, but recording five takeaways against Chicago is no small feat. In fact, it’s the most forced turnovers that Green Bay has had in a game since 2016. 

The run game is still a big issue. Plus, in addition to star edge Micah Parsons’ return still being up in the air, Green Bay has lost two key defenders — LB Edgerrin Cooper, DT Javon Hargrave — to season-ending Achilles injuries in back-to-back weeks. 

So, yes, the Packers are back — in the playoff hunt. Let’s see what they look like when Parsons gets back on the field. 

The Problem With The Eagles Is Jalen Hurts
– @damanklipz

Fact or Fiction: Fiction

Hurts has been a problem for the struggling Eagles, but he hasn’t been the problem. 

The team’s primary issue is collective offensive dysfunction. Philly is going through the hiccups of getting acclimated to first-year coordinator Sean Mannion’s scheme while simultaneously dealing with turnover on a once-strong offensive line and a myriad of issues at the offensive skill positions. 

Six-time Pro Bowl right tackle Lane Johnson suddenly retired in early October. Pro Bowl left guard Landon Dickerson is on IR. Center/guard Cam Jurgens was traded. No. 1 wide receiver DeVonta Smith has missed consecutive games with a hamstring injury. Oh, and the Eagles are down their top three running backs in an offense dependent on the rushing attack. 

Then on Thursday, the Eagles announced that Hurts will miss Sunday’s game against the Panthers due to a blood clot stemming from a calf injury sustained against the Rams in Week 4.

Maybe the calf injury has been an issue for Hurts the past couple of weeks, but as great of a clutch and playoff performer as he is, he’s far too inconsistent throughout games. His miss of a wide-open Dontayvion Wicks late in the third quarter of the Eagles’ heartbreaking two-point loss to the Jaguars in London was jarring — Wicks had a walk-in touchdown. 

Franchise quarterbacks are expected to lift their teams despite the issues around them. Hurts doesn’t do that enough given his pedigree (and his salary), seeming to be over-reliant on the star talent around him. 

But honestly, the Eagles have larger issues than Hurts. They have systemic issues. Philly needs to do a better job of creating an environment in which Hurts can succeed in spite of his limitations, and that starts with head coach Nick Sirianni.  

The Jaguars Are Super Bowl Contenders
– @gloriacastro05041943

Fact or Fiction: Fact

This shouldn’t be a controversial take. 

The Jaguars are easily one of the most complete teams in football. They’ve been getting great quarterback play from Trevor Lawrence. They’re deep at receiver. Their run game is competent. Their defense is superb. The team is well-coached. Those are all the main ingredients you look for in Super Bowl contenders. 

Yes, the Jags’ past two victories have been a grind. They had 26 total penalties and in Week 5 needed a late-game meltdown by the Eagles to win in London. But winning ugly is a skill, and it’s also too small of a sample size for it to be a reason for concern. 

With Jacksonville, we should be looking at larger trends, and many of them are overwhelmingly positive. Lawrence has been playing like an elite quarterback since last November, showing that his growth under second-year coach Liam Coen is very real. Former sixth-round pick Parker Washington continues to rise as a WR1. The Jaguars’ defense has been the league’s best against the run since the start of last year. After ranking second in takeaways in 2025, the Jags are tied for fifth this year (8). 

Don’t be surprised to see the Jaguars finish the season as the AFC’s No. 1 overall seed, either. At 4-1, Jacksonville is in a weak AFC South, and just four of its remaining 12 games are against teams with a winning record. 

The Jags are leaving some meat on the bone in the run game, and the health of left tackle Anton Harrison (knee) is something to watch. He could be out multiple weeks, if not months. But across the board, Jacksonville looks like the real deal. 

The Broncos May Have A QB Problem
– @co1e_w3

Fact or Fiction: Fact

Bo Nix is a competent quarterback who just seems to have limited upside. I think that’s one of the keys to Denver’s offensive problems. 

Head coach Sean Payton took back playcalling duties from offensive coordinator Davis Webb last week, only for the slow-start issue to show up once again in a one-score victory over the 0-5 Los Angeles Chargers. 

I think this is a reality with Nix that Payton has acknowledged, too. Denver had its highest called run rate of the season (49.0%) in Week 5, according to NFL Research, which could be interpreted as a lack of trust in the quarterback. 

Are Sean Payton and the Broncos losing faith in third-year Denver quarterback Bo Nix? (Photo by C. Morgan Engel/Getty Images)

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Even if you want to chalk that up as a game-specific strategy, Nix has still struggled when asked to push the ball down the field. He’s completed just 44.7% of his downfield passes, which is ninth-worst in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. He’s also one of three qualified quarterbacks without a touchdown pass when facing pressure. He’s registered just a 35.4% completion rate and 4.1 yards per attempt against pressure, which rank third- and fifth-worst in the NFL, respectively. 

Since entering the NFL in 2024, Nix has shown an ability to deliver in clutch moments. He’s also elite at avoiding negative plays — he’s taken a sack or committed a turnover on just 5.8% of his dropbacks this season, the sixth-lowest rate in the NFL per NGS. But he doesn’t generate nearly enough explosive pass plays, despite now having a legit deep threat in receiver Jaylen Waddle, who has only one catch on two targets on 26 go routes. 

Once again, Nix has a mediocre run game around him this season — Denver averages just 86.2 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th — but great quarterbacks can regularly find success in spite of that.

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In the 2024 and 2025 seasons, Indiana was a go-to for the public betting masses.

The Hoosiers were 9-4 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in 2024. Last year, while going a perfect 16-0 SU and winning the national title, Indiana went 10-6 ATS.

That included a 3-1 ATS mark in the College Football Playoff, with back-to-back blowouts of Alabama and Oregon.

But it doesn’t take much for the public to switch allegiances. 

Indiana is 6-0 SU this season, but just 1-5 ATS, which has the masses going the other way for Saturday’s huge Big Noon Kickoff vs. Ohio State.

“I think it’s results-based. Indiana was covering, and the Over was coming in every week,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “But bettors are fickle. It’s what have you done for me lately?

“And Ohio State has done a lot for bettors lately.”

Bookmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on that massive matchup, along with Notre Dame vs. BYU and more in college football Week 7 odds.

This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports.

  College Football Rocks On FOX

No. 5 Indiana got a huge scare last week at Nebraska, trailing 17-6 with 12 minutes remaining. But the Hoosiers put up two touchdowns in the next five minutes, then held on for a 20-17 victory.

Indiana was a 9.5-point favorite and failed to cover for the fifth time in six games.

Meanwhile, No. 4 Ohio State is 5-1 SU and a profitable 4-2 ATS. And the Buckeyes almost got to 5-1 ATS last week, routing Maryland 45-16, just shy of covering the hefty 31.5-point spread.

For Ohio State-Indiana, Caesars Sports opened the Buckeyes as 4-point road favorites, then backtracked to -3.5/-3 in short order on Sunday, with sharp play on Indiana +4. But the line then stabilized at Ohio State -3.5, where it remained on Wednesday night for Saturday’s noon ET kick on FOX.

“Indiana got a little bit of a scare last week. That was maybe a spot where they were looking ahead to this one,” Feazel said. “On the other side, Jeremiah Smith could be the No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft.

“Correlated with all that, it’s been one-way action. We’ve seen mostly Ohio State money come in.”

So far, it’s been one-way action on the Buckeyes ahead of their matchup with the Hoosiers (Getty Images).

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Feazel said there could be some interest in Indiana moneyline by game day, especially if the line returns to Buckeyes -4, making the Hoosiers’ moneyline price slightly more attractive than the current +147.

“But we still anticipate more action on the Buckeyes,” he said. “For sure, the need is gonna be Indiana to cover, and probably even to win, with the moneyline parlays going to Ohio State.

“Plus, we’ll need the Under for sure.”

The total toggled between 50.5/51.5 a couple times so far this week, and it was 50.5 on Wednesday night.

  On-Campus Sharp Side

Last week, college football betting expert Paul Stone had Houston +2.5 at Kansas State. Stone got there with ease, as the Cougars rolled to a 35-16 outright victory.

In college football Week 7 odds, Stone is already involved with the marquee matchup of Ohio State vs. Indiana. He expects points to be at a premium for the Big Ten showdown.

As such, he recommends Under 51 on the total. Stone pointed to a compelling statistic: Starting with Ohio State’s 14-7 win vs. Texas to open the 2025 season, the Under is 7-0 when the Buckeyes face a ranked opponent.

“Indiana couldn’t consistently run the ball last week at Nebraska. So I don’t see the Hoosiers having much success against Ohio State on the ground,” Stone said. “I think the Hoosiers are ultimately going to have to throw the ball, and I see the Buckeyes forcing Josh Hoover into some costly mistakes.”

  Notre Dame Big Game

No. 2 Notre Dame has been a minimum 21.5-point favorite in every game this season, going 6-0 SU/4-2 ATS. That’s finally not the case this week, but the Fighting Irish are still laying double digits at No. 8 BYU (5-0 SU and ATS)

Caesars opened the Irish as 11.5-point road favorites and quickly went to -10.5. That was due to sharp action on BYU +11.5 on Sunday.

Since then, the line has bounced between Notre Dame -10.5/-10 a couple times, and it was -10.5 on Wednesday night.

“This is an interesting one. It’s the first real test for Notre Dame. BYU is a tougher opponent,” Feazel said. “So we’re seeing what’s shaping up to be a classic Super Bowl middle game.

“The only need is Notre Dame to win by 1-10 points. People are gonna be betting Notre Dame on the spread or playing BYU moneyline.”

The big home underdog certainly has an attractive moneyline price, at +320. A $100 bet on a Cougars outright upset would profit $320 (total payout $420).

Can the Cougars keep it close against the highly-touted Irish? (Getty Images)

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Oh Say Can You SEC

Of course, there are key matchups in the SEC this week, just like almost every week. For starters, there’s Florida (4-2 SU/3-3 ATS) vs. No. 7 Texas (4-1 SU/1-4 ATS) at noon ET Saturday.

The Longhorns are coming off a 27-24 upset loss as 7.5-point favorites vs. Oklahoma. And just two weeks ago, the Gators were the flavor of the season and ranked No. 8, but are now unranked.

That’s what happens when you get whacked by Missouri and South Carolina on back-to-back weekends.

Caesars opened Texas as a 10-point home favorite vs. Florida. On Wednesday night, the Longhorns were up to -11 (-105).

“It’s a great matchup, but it’s overshadowed in this time slot by Ohio State-Indiana,” Feazel said. “Right now, we’re taking two-way action, with a little more on Texas. And I think that’s where the public is gonna go, treating this as a get-right game for Texas.

“We’re gonna need Florida to cover.”

At 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday, it’s No. 6 Alabama (5-1 SU/4-2 ATS) vs. No. 14 Tennessee (5-1 SU/3-3 ATS). Alabama opened -6.5 (-115) at Caesars and got to -8.5 early in the week, then went to -7.5 (-114) on Wednesday night.

Last week, the Crimson Tide fell to Georgia 20-17 as 2.5-point home favorites. But oddsmakers aren’t holding that against the Tide at all, and neither are bettors.

“That loss hasn’t stopped the public from coming in on Alabama. People are still on the Alabama train,” Feazel said.

A key factor to watch: Tennessee QB Faizon Brandon (shoulder) is questionable, after sitting out last week’s 24-17 win at Arkansas.

“We’ll see this number get to 10 if Brandon doesn’t play,” Feazel said. “We’ll need Tennessee to hang around in this game.”

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Week 6 saw emotional upset wins for Kentucky and UCLA, and Alabama suffered its first at-home regular season defeat to Georgia since 2007. Now, Week 7 is full of make-or-break conference matchups. 

The Crimson Tide hit the road to face Tennessee for its annual Third Saturday in October contest, in hopes of bouncing back from the loss to the Bulldogs. Ole Miss will host Missouri for a ranked contest and a homecoming for Tigers quarterback Austin Simmons, in what should be an offensive showdown. 

But can UCLA keep its momentum as it returns home to face a red-hot Wisconsin team, and can the Oklahoma Sooners take its Red River win into another conference W over Will Stein and Kentucky? 

FOX Sports’ Joel Klatt has made his Week 7 picks for those games and more.

  Notre Dame 28, BYU 17

(Photo by James Black/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Spread: Notre Dame -10.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -395, BYU +310

Klatt’s thoughts: “Notre Dame at BYU. Both undefeated. Notre Dame is favored by 10.5. That should tell you a lot. Top-10 game in Provo, where BYU has won 14 of its last 15. It’s a really good home field advantage for BYU. Because their home crowd, their fan base in general, is awesome … Notre Dame has gotten quietly better. Quietly, because all of us just want to trash their schedule. And I get it. I think that that’s on the table. You can trash their schedule, it hasn’t been great. But they’ve dominated that schedule. And every single week, what do we see? They get better running the football. That should be scary to everybody. Quarterback CJ Carr is an elite player. I think he’s playing at a very high level. I think he’s a day-one draft pick, there’s no doubt. We know that they have an elite defense. They have the No. 1 defense in America right now. 

“BYU, I think they’re going to be able to ride the emotional crowd early in the game. Think Ole Miss vs. LSU … So they’re going to have to ride that. But they don’t have LJ Martin on offense, and they need him, they need him for balance. Bear Bachmeier played terrific last week; 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards. But can he do that against Notre Dame? I have my questions about that. BYU has struggled in this type of matchup. This is exactly where they fell apart last year. I think it will be difficult for BYU. I think the Irish have a chip on their shoulder. [Last year] they lost those first two games. They were 10-2. Did not make the playoffs. And this is their first opportunity to really get out there and prove it. I think they’ll get a different version of Notre Dame. 

“Notre Dame covers, 28-17. I’m going to take the Irish.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Notre Dame
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Notre Dame -10.5

  Alabama 31, Tennessee 17

(Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images)

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Spread: Alabama -8.5
Moneyline: Alabama -310, Tennessee +250

Klatt’s thoughts: “Alabama at Tennessee. This is going to be a great game. Alabama’s favored by 8.5 on the road. I’m really fascinated to see how Alabama bounces back and how they play. (And see) what sense of urgency they have, what physicality they have up front after Saturday night … If you peel it back, what did you see on Saturday night? I saw a team that was far better on the line of scrimmage than they were a year ago. Alabama would get into the game and get decimated trying to protect the quarterback … Now the question is, can you maintain that level? … the coaches that can get their players to understand that the only thing they have total control over is their own effort level, those are the teams that can put their best effort forward every week… My question for Alabama is, can they be consistent? … I do believe in Keelon Russell. 

“I don’t like the quarterback situation for the Vols. George MacIntyre is going to make his second start. They struggled through the Arkansas game … they trailed going into the fourth. I don’t love that. I do like DeSean Bishop, I think he’s one of the best backs in the SEC. I think he’s explosive, he’s got to be huge in this game. You’ve got to be able to run the ball to protect the quarterback. Because if they don’t, it’s going to be a sack fest for Alabama … It’ll be loud, it’ll be difficult for Alabama. But I trust what I’ve seen from Alabama … I don’t see Tennessee lighting up the scoreboard. 

“I’ve got Alabama 31-17 covering the 8.5.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Alabama
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Alabama -8.5

  Oklahoma State 35, Houston 28

(Photo by WJ/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Spread: Houston -4.5
Moneyline: Houston -192, Oklahoma State +160

Klatt’s thoughts: “No. 18 at No. 20. Houston is favored by 4.5 at home over Oklahoma State. Houston has had a really solid start to the year. … [Oklahoma State’s] Eric Morris brought a ton of players from North Texas, and it’s working. … Big fan of QB Drew Mestemaker. I think he’s a day-one NFL Draft pick. I think he’s one of the better players in college football. I think he plays at an elite level. He throws it for over 300 yards a game. They can run it with Caleb Hawkins. And they’ve got a solid slot receiver in Wyatt Young. This is one of the best offenses in college football … I think it’s a bad matchup for Houston. 

“I like what Willie Fritz is doing. QB Conner Weigman has been good. Like I said, I like Houston. I just like Oklahoma State more. And you’re telling me I can take the 4.5? I’m gonna take it. Houston’s pass defense is not where it needs to be to face Oklahoma State. 

“I’m going to take Oklahoma State 35-28. I’ll take that 4.5 in that game on the road.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Oklahoma State
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Oklahoma State +4.5

  Missouri 27, Ole Miss 24

(Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images)

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Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
Moneyline: Ole Miss -225, Missouri +185

Klatt’s thoughts: “Missouri at Ole Miss. Ole Miss is favored by 6.5 at home. Austin Simmons has a bit of a homecoming there, he’s going back to Ole Miss. He’s been terrific for Missouri. Their last couple of games they have played so well and they have pounded the rock. Even without Ahmad Hardy. I love Ole Miss, and Trinidad Chambliss. I don’t love Ole Miss’ defense. That’s a problem in this one, because Missouri seems to have that thing that travels, which is physicality and the run game. Running back Jamal Roberts has been outstanding. Missouri in their last two ball games has run it for 220 against Florida and 250 against Texas A&M. Have you seen Ole Miss’ defense? Ole Miss’ run defense is 111th in the country. This is not a very good defense. So, is Missouri going to be able to move the ball? Yes. And they will be able to score. And Austin Simmons is playing well. There’s no doubt in my mind. 

“The question for Ole Miss becomes is Chambliss Superman? I think he’s gotta be in this game. I know Kewan Lacy came back, but I don’t think he’s 100% … We’ll see what he’s able to do. Chambliss is so good. I love Chambliss. But man, this is going to be difficult, even at home. 6.5 is too many. I’ve got to take the 6.5 the way Missouri is playing. I don’t love Ole Miss’ defense. In particular their inability to stop the run. 

“Give me Missouri in this game, maybe even in a tight one, 27-24.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Missouri
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Missouri +6.5

  Michigan 20, Penn State 13

(Photo by Bailey Hillesheim/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

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Spread: Michigan -6.5
Moneyline: Michigan -245, Penn State +200

Klatt’s thoughts: “How about Penn State at Michigan? Guys. Whoever loses this game … Yikes. This is an interesting game, man. I worry about whoever loses this game. Anybody else? … Penn State 3-3. Michigan 3-2. Two teams that have underperformed. They’re below expectations. What do we know about this game? What is the best element of this game? It’s the Michigan defense. And they’re the best thing in this game by a wide margin. And because they’ve got the best unit in this game, they can try and build into points. Everyone’s going to be watching this offense. I get it. All eyes are on Jason Beck. All eyes are on Bryce Underwood 

“Meanwhile, Penn State’s offense does not do anything. They don’t have guys that can get open. I worry about how many points they can score. I know everyone is going to be worried about Michigan’s offense, but the key to this game is that Michigan’s defense is an elite defense. I look at them to control the game. I find it difficult to see how Penn State gets even 13 points. 

“I’m going to take Michigan. Low-scoring game. 20-13. Michigan covers the 6.5”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Michigan
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Michigan -6.5

  Wisconsin 20, UCLA 17

(Photo by Ross Harried/NurPhoto via Getty Images)

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Spread: UCLA -2.5
Moneyline: UCLA -142, Wisconsin +120

Klatt’s thoughts: “Wisconsin at UCLA. UCLA is only favored by 2.5. Interesting, right? This is a sneaky big game. If you actually look at the odds to win the Big Ten … you know who has the third-best odds [after Indiana and Ohio State]? UCLA. Do you know who has the fifth-best odds to win the Big Ten? Wisconsin. It’s surprising to some people. This UCLA team has been hearing their praises. Everyone’s talking about them. And then they go out the next week and fall flat. I hope that doesn’t happen to UCLA. Ty Dieffenbach, their backup quarterback, now Wisconsin is going to be able to scheme for him. I think he was fine out there, he’s a backup quarterback. And he’s a backup quarterback to a guy in Nico Iamaleava who was not lighting it up. This team is about running the football. And they’re about Wayne Knight. 

“And now you look up, and you’re going to face this Wisconsin team. I get it, a lot of you are rolling your eyes when I talk about Wisconsin. I’m just telling you, they are vastly improved from the team we even saw late last year. In particular on the defensive side. They have a pretty darn good defense. Wisconsin’s defense is fifth in the country in yards per play defense. That’s nothing to scoff at … Nobody wants to talk about them. They are very good on the defensive side. This is what all you Badgers were getting when you hired Luke Fickell.

“I don’t love this matchup for UCLA because of this Wisconsin defense. I’ll take the 2.5. Wisconsin wins the game 20-17.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Wisconsin
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Wisconsin +2.5

  Oklahoma 24, Kentucky 17

(Photo by Gunnar Word/Getty Images)

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Spread: Oklahoma -6.5
Moneyline: Oklahoma -345, Kentucky +275

Klatt’s thoughts: “Oklahoma’s favored by 6.5. Look at that. My question for Kentucky is, does the clock strike midnight on this Kentucky team? … Can you play three straight emotional games? Or is OU going to come back and lay an egg after its win at Red River? I’m all over the map on this game. I love Will Stein. I think QB Kenny Minchey has been outstanding. There’s no doubt. I do not love Kentucky’s defense. I love Oklahoma’s defense. I don’t love Oklahoma’s offense … Oklahoma’s offense, I thought, got better. I know that’s hard to say.  

“Kentucky’s incredible run comes to an end on the road. I think OU wins this game 24-17. OU covers the 6.5.”

Klatt’s straight-up pick: Oklahoma
Klatt’s pick against the spread: Oklahoma -6.5

CFB Related Stories

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The Seattle Seahawks visit the Denver Broncos on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2026 at 8:15 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver.

Both teams are 3-2. Seattle lost 32-29 to San Francisco in Week 5, and Denver beat the Chargers on the road. Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads the NFL with 583 receiving yards, and the Seahawks convert 29.8 percent of their third downs, among the bottom five in the league. Denver converts 33.8 percent, among the bottom 10.

The Seahawks are 3-point favorites over the Broncos, with a total of 41.5 and a moneyline of -155 for the Seahawks and +130 for the Broncos.

Below, we’ll give you all the details you need to know about how to watch this game.

How to Watch Seahawks vs. Broncos

• When: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 8:15 p.m. ET
• Where: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
• Stream: Amazon Prime Video
• Follow Live: FOX Sports

Players To Watch

Seattle converts just 29.8 percent of its third downs, among the bottom five in the NFL, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the constant. He leads the league with 583 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, and he has caught at least five passes in all five games, including five for 102 yards and a touchdown against San Francisco on Oct. 11.

Denver allows 202.2 passing yards per game, and Smith-Njigba drew 14 targets in his 10-catch, 128-yard, two-touchdown game at Washington on Sept. 27. An offense that stalls on third down needs his targets to supply the yards it is not gaining on schedule.

Seattle’s loss to San Francisco on Oct. 11 came with 2 Sam Darnold interceptions, on a day he completed 18 of 29 passes for 195 yards and a touchdown. His season line is 755 passing yards, seven touchdowns and five interceptions, including 379 yards and four touchdowns at Washington on Sept. 27.

Denver has 13.0 sacks, including 4.0 from Zach Allen, and a pass rush that gets home punishes mistakes. A repeat of Darnold’s two giveaways against the 49ers costs the Seahawks possessions they cannot spare.

Two catches for 18 yards and a touchdown in the win at the Chargers on Oct. 11 is the latest line for Courtland Sutton, who has caught 11 of 25 targets for 104 yards and one touchdown through five games. His longest catch of the season is 27 yards, against the Rams on Sept. 27.

Seattle allows 150.8 passing yards per game and has seven interceptions, so every target to Sutton carries risk as well as reward. Denver converts 33.8 percent of its third downs, among the bottom 10 in the NFL, and the Broncos need his targets to become first downs.

Seahawks vs. Broncos Odds

Learn more about the Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos game and check the full schedule on FOX Sports!

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